Latest OnTheMarket survey shows house price expectations are moderating while renter optimism is high
The Q2 edition of the OnTheMarket Property Sentiment Index (PSI) is released today (Monday 13th July) and reveals that house price growth forecasts are beginning to align more closely with market reality, as expectations moderate following a prolonged period of mismatch between buyers and sellers.
The PSI is a quarterly report from the UK property portal measuring market sentiment among buyers, sellers and renters and the impact of key economic, political and legislative change in the ground. It is based on two surveys: one conducted via YouGov among the general public, and another of active OnTheMarket users who have submitted a sale or letting lead within the past six months.
The latest research shows house price growth forecasts are beginning to align more closely with market reality, with just 31% now anticipating house price increases over the next year, down from 41% in March 2026 and 51% in September 2025, signalling a clear reset in pricing outlooks. This shift towards more realistic expectations is likely to help bridge the gap, with properties increasingly being marketed at achievable price points.
Yet despite the headlines, optimism continues to shine through. Renters, in particular, are feeling positive, with 88% expecting to find a property and have possession of the keys within six months, reflecting growing confidence in their ability to fulfil their moving plans.
The report also highlights encouraging signs around sale timelines, with 67% of sellers expecting to complete on a sale within six months. Buyers are similarly optimistic, with the same proportion expecting to complete within this timeframe. This points to growing confidence in the pace of transactions and suggests that, despite wider economic uncertainty, many movers still believe the market is functioning at a reasonable speed. However, with a third expecting the process to take longer than six months, above the five-month average cited by GOV.UK, the findings also underline the continued complexity of the home moving process, particularly for those navigating chains and conveyancing delays.
Affordability confidence also remains resilient despite ongoing expectations of interest rate rises.
Just under 70% of active buyers remain confident about being able to afford their next home, which has remained steady since the end of last year, despite continued political turbulence and economic headwinds.
34% of consumers anticipate an increase in interest rates, slightly down from 36% in March 2026, while 29% of active buyers and sellers expect rates to rise, up marginally from 26%. Notably, these figures have remained relatively stable overall, suggesting that while higher rates are anticipated, they are already factored into decision-making and are not significantly dampening confidence across the market.
Key findings from the report include:
- Affordability confidence remains high for almost three quarters of active buyers (66%), broadly in line with March 2026 (69%), despite the geopolitical conflict and fluctuations in interest rates and inflation
- Following the implementation of the Renters’ Rights Act, renters remain positive about their prospects, with 88% expecting to find a property and move within six months
- Confidence remains high despite expectations of interest rate rises, with 34% of consumers predicting an increase (down from 36% in March 2026), compared to 29% of active buyers and sellers (up slightly from 26% in March 2026)
- House price expectations are moderating, with 31% expecting prices to increase over the next year, down from 41% in March 2026 and 51% in September 2025
- More respondents expect price stability, with 30% anticipating values will remain broadly unchanged (up from 26%), while only 20% expect prices to fall
Together, the findings point to a market that remains more resilient than headlines may suggest. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty and fresh headwinds, affordability confidence remains high, with buyers, sellers and renters continuing to engage and adapt. As pricing expectations become more realistic and confidence in the process improves, there is a clear sense that momentum is building. Even in a challenging environment, people will continue to find ways to make their next move happen.
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, commented:
“The property market works most effectively when buyers and sellers share realistic expectations, and it’s encouraging to see that gap narrowing. Historically, one of the biggest obstacles to transaction activity has been sellers holding out for prices that buyers simply weren’t prepared or able to meet. As expectations become more aligned with market conditions, we should see more properties priced appropriately from the outset, helping transactions progress more quickly and smoothly.
“It’s also particularly interesting to see such a positive response from renters. While challenges remain, greater certainty around renters’ rights, combined with improving personal finances for some households, may be giving people more confidence that their next move is achievable.”
Marc von Grunherr, Director of Benham & Reeves, said:
“What’s particularly encouraging is that confidence across the market has remained remarkably resilient despite a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflationary pressures, and continued speculation around the future path of interest rates
“Buyers have become far more pragmatic than they were in previous years. Rather than waiting for the perfect market conditions, many have accepted that mortgage rates are unlikely to return to the historic lows of the past and are choosing to move when their personal circumstances require it. That shift in mindset has helped underpin activity levels and maintain confidence.
“We’re also seeing renters remain optimistic despite continued competition for quality homes. Since the Renters’ Rights Act came into force, both tenants and landlords have been adjusting to a new regulatory landscape. While the reforms have brought greater certainty for renters, demand for quality homes remains strong and many prospective tenants continue to approach the market with confidence.
“It’s equally positive to see expectations around house prices becoming more measured. A market characterised by steady, sustainable growth rather than rapid price inflation is ultimately healthier for buyers, sellers, and investors alike, helping to improve affordability while providing greater certainty for those looking to make longer-term property decisions.
“London continues to benefit from strong underlying demand, both domestically and internationally, and provided economic conditions remain broadly stable, we expect confidence to remain resilient through the second half of the year.”
Methodology
Data in this article was collected via two surveys:
- YouGov omnibus survey with a sample size of 4,197 adults in the UK, conducted between 3-5 June 2026.
- Those actively looking to buy or rent a property = 301
- Those who currently own a home = 129
- Those actively looking to purchase a property = 231
- OnTheMarket survey using SurveyMonkey, with 2,550 respondents in total, conducted between 1-12 June 2026
Where totals do not add up to 100%, this is due to rounding.
